In today’s email:
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Biden drops out: President won’t seek re-election, adding to election volatility.
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Here come the small caps: Russell 2000 surges 11% in just five trading days.
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Finding gains outside of stocks: Wide Moat Research analyst Nick Ward explains why investors should look at “alternative” investments.
How’s this for election uncertainty…
On Sunday, President Joe Biden announced that he would be dropping out of the 2024 presidential race in order to focus on finishing his term. As part of the press release, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his pick to receive the Democratic Nomination.
Markets haven’t reacted strongly one way or the other on the news. Stocks were higher – with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both up more than 1% midday – but that could be attributed to a rebound after their recent selloff.
The uncertainty over who former President Donald Trump will face off with in November could lead to some volatility in the coming weeks.
As our colleague and Retirement Trader editor Dr. David Eifrig wrote in May, volatility tends to rise the closer we get to November. And that’s in the average year.
The uncertainty that is created by likely political changes always creates that irregularity.
Now, we’re throwing in more contingency over exactly who will run for the White House.
As our colleague Sean Michael Cummings explained in this morning’s DailyWealth free e-letter, we’ve already seen volatility pick up. The VIX, which shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility, is picking up. From Sean…
Last week, the VIX shifted gears. On Wednesday, it rose 9.8%. And on Thursday, it rose another 10%. These are big leaps for the VIX – especially compared to the calm we saw just a few months ago.
Still, the VIX is historically low. With a reading of 16, it’s still below the level of 20, which indicates higher volatility environments. But with the election coming up, and the VIX already heading higher, we can expect some big price swings in stocks coming up.
Moving on to a turnaround for a lagging sector…
Small-cap stocks haven’t experienced the same rally as the rest of the market. While the Russell 2000 (the Index for small-caps) is up about 9% this year, that’s almost half of the 16% return for the S&P 500.
Here’s another way of looking at it… While the S&P 500, Nasdaq Index, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all recently hit all-time highs, the Russell 2000 is still more than 10% below its own record high.
But it’s starting to catch up…
The Russell 2000 surged more than 11% between July 9 and July 16. That’s more than double the return of the Dow Jones over the same period. It blew away the 1% return for the S&P 500. (The Nasdaq was about flat over the five trading days).
Stansberry Digest editor Corey McLaughlin referred to this trade as the “Great Rotation.” He noted that inflows into the Russell 2000 have almost exactly matched outflows from the Big Tech companies. And the stocks are showing that trend. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Russell 2000 hasn’t outperformed the S&P 500 that much in a one-week period since at least 1986.
The rally may not be done yet…
According to Ryan Detrick of the Carson Group, that was one of the largest one-week moves ever for small-caps. Since 1970, it’s only happened a handful of times…
On average, the Russell 2000 is up 25% a year after triggering one of these signals. So, if history is any indication, the small-cap rally still has legs after its recent strength.
If volatility comes, look outside of stocks…
A diversified portfolio is a must in any stock environment. But that becomes especially true in market drawdowns or times of volatility. In times of market panic, we’ve seen investors sell first and ask questions later. So, even strong companies get caught up in downturns.
There’s no better way to diversify than with “alternative assets.”
In today’s MarketWise Daily, originally from the July 19 issue of the Intelligent Income Daily free e-letter, Wide Moat Research analyst Nick Ward shares why alternative assets are how the top investors protect and grow their wealth.
These assets – which consist of things like real estate, private equity, commodities, and even art – are now easier to buy than ever.
As Nick writes, real estate investment trusts (REITs) are a good way to gain real estate exposure. And companies like Blackstone (BX) allow folks to gain exposure to private equity and credit.
These are all assets investors should be considering to hedge their portfolios outside of stocks and bonds.
Over to the Wide Moat team…
The Assets You Never Bought (But Really Should)Have you ever wondered how the super wealthy invest their money? They must do things differently than the Average Joe, right? That’s correct. A recent study performed by JP Morgan Asset Management caught my eye this week. It clearly shows that the super-rich behave differently than most investors. So, what sets them apart? There’s one particular asset class that they take advantage of that most investors ignore. They use this asset class to not only protect their wealth, but to grow it (regardless of what the broader market is doing). If that sounds too good to be true, it’s not. The reason that the uber-wealthy take advantage of this strategy is because it’s largely uncorrelated to the traditional stock and bond markets. And the good news is, anyone can pursue this strategy. It doesn’t require billions of dollars to do so. You don’t even need millions. If You Can’t Beat Them, Join ThemI’m talking about alternative assets. In the past this might have been difficult for the average investor. But today, it’s easy. And I can prove it. An alternative investment is a financial asset that does not fall into the traditional categories of stocks, bonds, or cash. Common examples are real estate, private equity investments, venture capital, managed futures, other forms of derivatives (options contracts), commodities and precious metals, art, antiques, and other collectibles. To be clear here, I’m not talking about a Paul Skenes rookie card… I’m talking about a high-grade 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle. I’m talking about assets that are truly rare and so feverishly sought after that their value is not tied to the stock market’s performance. JP Morgan Asset Management recently published their 2024 Global Family Office Report. This study surveyed 190 single family office clients from across the world with an average family net worth of $1.4 billion. And after reading over 97 pages of dry copy and charts, one thing was clear: These families get rich, and stay rich, because of alternative investments. Owning assets like that is how these family offices are able to hit their double-digit annual return targets without taking excessive risks in the stock market. According to the Family Office Report, alternative investments was the largest average holding of these portfolios with a 47.5% weighting (publicly traded stocks was the second largest at 26.3% average weighting). What’s more, the data shows that alternative assets become a more and more important part of these portfolios the larger they get.
In 2021 Vanguard published a study which looked at over 5 million investor accounts showing that the average portfolio allocation across its platform was 63% stocks, 16% bonds, and 21% cash. When compared to the JP Morgan report, this Vanguard data shows that there’s a big disconnect between the typical retail investor and the super-rich. But it doesn’t have to be that way. Three Alternative Asset StrategiesMaybe you’ll never own a Monet or a Mickey Mantle rookie card. But investing in alternative assets – and reaping the benefits – is easier than you might think.
What about REITs (real estate investment trusts)? As longtime readers undoubtedly know, we’re big fans of REITs and their ability to generate reliable – and reliably rising – income for long-term investors. REITs are not quite the same as owning your own portfolio of private real estate, and we’d hesitate to label them a pure alternative asset. But they are an easy “one click” option for real estate exposure. And we follow several top-tier REITs in the model portfolio of Intelligent Income Investor, paid up readers can view that here.
The truth is most people should avoid sophisticated options trading. They assume it’s a quick way to blow up their portfolios. And, when used irresponsibly, that’s absolutely the case. But options strategies in the hands of a mature investor can be a great tool and another way to add alternative asset exposure to your portfolio. Here, I’d recommend the research published by my colleague Stephen Hester. Stephen runs our Intelligent Options Advisor service, and he’s been doing a great job. That service has recorded an 80%+ win rate since inception in November of 2022. Again, paid up subscribers can see Stephen’s full portfolio right here.
Thankfully, there is a way to gain access to things like real estate, infrastructure assets, private equity and debt, and a slew of other alternative investments is one easy to buy/own package: alternative asset managers. We own several of these companies in our paid-up model portfolios. For instance, Blackstone (BX) is the biggest and best-known player in this space with over $1 trillion in assets under management. Blackstone owns more than 230 companies and over 12,500 real estate assets. Many of the brightest minds in the industry work for Blackstone and the company has a long history of enriching shareholders. BX shares are up by more than 29% during the past year, nearly 198% during the last five years, and by more than 301% during the last decade (all these results beat the S&P 500’s returns during the same periods). The company pays a 2.5% dividend and offers a five-year dividend growth rate of 9.1%. At Wide Moat Research, we’re all about building portfolios that allow investors to sleep well at night and Blackstone is just one of several ideas that we like when it comes to adding diversification to our portfolios without adding undue stress or risk. |
Nick and the rest of the Wide Moat team focus on these exact kinds of assets to help diversify investors’ portfolios. And they set the stage to navigate any market condition. In fact, Wide Moat Research founder Brad Thomas literally wrote the book on REITs.
If you’re an investor with most of your portfolio tied up in stocks, I urge you to check out Brad’s research on alternative assets.